The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ)
Review of Economic Performance
April – June 2017
According to the PIOJ, real GDP grew by 0.3% relative to the comparative quarter in 2016. This was attributed to an estimated increase of 1.2% in the Services Industry, which outweighed a 2.5% decline in the Goods Producing Industry.
Within the Goods Producing Industry, there was a decline in real value added for the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing down 8.5% and Mining & Quarrying down 10.5% while Manufacturing and Construction grew by 2.4% and 1.5% respectively.
Moving to the Services Industry, all subcategories of the industry recorded growth except Government Services which remained flat. On the other hand, Industries registering the greatest growth were Hotels and Restaurants (8.0%), Finance & Insurance Services (1.5%), and other Services (1.5%).
For the January to June 2017 period PIOJ reported that real value added was projected to have increased by 0.2%. The service industry was estimated to have expanded by 0.8%, while the Goods Producing Industry was estimated to have declined by 1.7%. All industrial sectors with the exception of Mining and Quarrying, Agriculture, and Producer of Government Services were projected to have grown during the six months period.
The PIOJ projects a growth rate of 2-3% for the 2017/2018 fiscal year, while growth for the third quarter is projected at 1-2% relative to the third quarter of 2016.
Change in Gross Domestic Product and Contribution to Growth at Constant Prices
| % Change | % Point Contribution | |
| Total GDP
Goods Producing Industry
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Mining and Quarrying Manufacture Construction
Services Industry
Electricity and Water Supply Transportation, Storage and Communication Wholesale & Retail Trade, Repair
Finance & Insurance Services Real Estate, Renting & Business Services Producers of Government Services
Hotels & Restaurants Other Services Measured (FISIM)
|
0.3
-2.5
-8.5
-10.5 2.4 1.5
1.2
0.3 0.5
0.5
1.5 0.5
0.0
8.0 1.5 1.5 |
0.3
-0.6
-0.7
-0.2 0.2 0.1
1.0
0.0 0.1
0.1
0.2 0.1
0.0
0.5 0.1 0.0 |
Other Macroeconomic Highlights:
Inflation for the quarter was 1.1% according to the PIOJ. This was attributed to increases in the divisions Transport (up 2.4%), and Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (up 1.3%).
There was also improvement in the labour market according to the PIOJ. This, as the total labour force as at April 2017 increased by 17,700 persons to 1,371,600 persons compared to 1,204,800 in 2016. In addition, the unemployment rate for April 2017 was 12.2% compared with 13.7% in January 2016.
Post Quarter Prospects
With regards to “Post Quarter Prospects,” PIOJ noted that, “for July 2017 total electricity consumption remained flat relative to July 2016, while provisional data indicated that airport arrivals increased by 10.8% to 234,051 passengers.” Inflation of 0.6% was recorded for July 2017. This reflected higher indices for Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages and Transport. In contrast there was a decrease in the production of crude bauxite and alumina.